These days being an investor takes fortitude. Since the start of 2022 stocks and bonds have each generated double-digit losses, upending the conventional wisdom that when stocks fall bonds rise, cushioning the blow to an overall portfolio. Further, elevated inflation levels not seen since the 1970s erode the value of holding cash and further exacerbate stock and bond market losses.
The economy continues to produce mixed signals regarding whether it will enter recession. Because the stock market looks ahead 6-9 months, its bear market performance has endorsed the recession argument. Further, after the Fourth of July the bond market joined the recession camp as the 2-year bond yield surpassed the 10-year rate to create an inverted yield curve. These stock and bond market signals haven’t always led to recession, but the odds now seem better than 50/50.
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