The S&P 500 produced a total return of 31.5% in 2019. That huge advance is particularly astonishing considering that aggregate corporate earnings barely grew at all. According to the 1/10/20 edition of FactSet Earnings Insight by John Butters, analysts expect full-year 2019 earnings to average a meager 0.2% growth with revenue growth of 3.9%. Roughly speaking, this means the year’s entire rally is currently manifested in higher P/E multiples. We can think of some reasons why the current investment climate supports higher valuations than the climate of just 12 months ago, but 31.5%? That is a lot to explain.
For starters, those modest corporate growth numbers are a bit of a red herring, weighed down by low energy prices and industrial sector softness that will probably turn out to be temporary. More on this below. Overall, the U.S. economy remains on solid footing. Measured unemployment is holding steady at 3.5%. Normal wage growth is running at approximately 3%, fairly strong.
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