Investment Comments


August Investment Comments

A famous investor once said, “Most of the time the Fed is not that important; occasionally it’s the only game in town.”  While the Fed is not the only thing that matters in the current environment—trade, for one, is another notable factor driving markets—one could certainly make a reasonable case […]


July Investment Comments

After ten years of mostly steady expansion, the industrial economy currently looks tired.  Transportation, energy, and basic materials stocks have been among the market’s worst performers in the past one and three months.  The statistics confirm investors’ concerns.  April’s industrial production estimate showed annualized growth of less than 1%, about […]


June Investment Comments

After the market hit all-time highs in late April, May marked the return of volatility as trade negotiations with China broke down. It all started on Sunday, May 5th when President Trump issued a tweet indicating the Chinese had backtracked on already-negotiated promises to write into Chinese law changes covering […]


May Investment Comments

After a strong start to 2019, markets have recovered from the significant declines experienced in last year’s fourth quarter.  Much of the rebound can be attributed to the relatively abrupt pivot by the Federal Reserve at the start of the year to be patient with further rate increases, versus a […]


April Investment Comments

“With our policy rate in the range of neutral, with muted inflation pressures and with some of the downside risks we’ve talked about, this is a good time to be patient,” according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.  Comforting statements like this have helped restore investor confidence just as Powell’s […]


March Investment Comments

So far, 2019 has been kinder to investors than was the finish to 2018.  A combination of stronger-than-expected earnings, a more accommodative Federal Reserve, and a strong labor market has supported the full recovery from December’s 9% loss for the S&P 500. On the earnings front, results are coming in […]


February Investment Comments

Volatility returned to the stock market in 2018, ending the gentle melt up that investors had enjoyed.  The S&P 500 dropped at least 10% in three separate months last year—February, October, and December.  Stocks battled back bravely from the first two corrections, but a weak December finally torpedoed the S&P’s […]


January Investment Comments

Investors hoping for a year-end rally have instead been treated to increased market volatility.  A near 5% decline in its first week was the market’s worst start to December since 2008, though this drop followed what was the S&P 500’s best week in almost seven years.  The recent turbulence is […]


December Investment Comments

Despite October’s market drama, anxiety over the recent election, and hand-wringing over the durability of the economic expansion, the stock market seems to be on sound footing.  Economic growth appears solid and valuations are reasonable thanks to the impact of lower corporate tax rates. Third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) […]


November Investment Comments

November’s midterm elections are likely to result in a divided congress.  Forecasting website FiveThirtyEight.com currently predicts an 85% chance that Democrats win control of the House but only a 19% chance the Senate swings blue as well.  A surprise sweep by one party could cause further asset price volatility as […]